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CES Session Preview: Smartphones, Netbooks, Laptops/Notebooks

Tue Dec 22, 2009 5:20 PM EST
technology, apple, computer, laptop, smartphone, notebook, netbook, mobile-computing, session, CES-on-Newsvine, crunchpad, joojoo
By Brian Ford

Crunchpad/JooJoo

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Attendees at CES will have a choice of conference sessions covering almost every conceivable topic in consumer electronics, but perhaps nothing will be so current or come with such immediate ramifications on the future of an industry as the hotly debated topic of mobile computing. In fact, one of the first questions I was asked regarding CES went straight to that point:


As consumer products move to cloud computing, they will become smaller, simpler and cheaper. I would like to know:

  • Which products are ahead to curve? netbooks or cell phones?

Beyond being "the" question a lot of companies and consumers are pondering, CES has dedicated an hour-long session to exploring the topic:

Smartphones, Netbooks, Laptops/Notebooks: Competitors or Complements?

All three of these mobile computing devices are vying for market dominance. Harris Interactive research executives will share findings from an in-depth study of Smartphone, netbook and laptop/notebook users to reveal how each device is used and positioned in the marketplace. SOURCE

Milton Ellis promises to examine "Just the Facts: Research, Reports and Revelations" in an effort to puzzle out what the future may hold for computing on the go.

Odd, then, that there is no mention of tablet computing in the abstract.

Laptops and notebooks are yesterday's mobile computing news. They remain portable, yes. Still, the power of current-gen laptops and notebooks is such that $500-$700 will buy what most consumers used to expect from an impressive desktop PC.

I don't see an immediate future in which these devices are obsolete, I just think they can be ruled out as part of the debate.

So, that leaves us with netbooks and smartphones, two devices which tend to straddle a niche that seems to have eluded most every company which has tried to find the sweet spot: Tablet-based computing.

In other words, no one has cornered (or even gotten to first base with) the market for a device which provides not the full computing experience, but the essential computing experience that one would expect while having coffee at Starbucks or on a long flight or while attending a lecture. (Not to mention while roaming around an event on the scale of CES.)

Neither smartphones nor netbooks fill this void. With netbooks in particular, they're the direction some companies have gone based on a lack of success, to date, with tablets: Mobile computing cop-outs. With that said--if you're looking to the future--the first "must-have" device is going to be more smartphone than netbook.

Why?

Netbooks are devices which trend down from an existing device. They're smaller, yes, but they basically feel like crippled laptops. The familiar form factor (clamshell with screen and keyboard) drives expectations from consumers regarding a certain user experience that, in most cases, simply isn't met by these products.

Netbooks are dead upon arrival.

Smartphones--starting with Apple's iPhone and extending to the Palm Pre and Droid--are more closely aligned with the future of mobile computing. Consumers have an existing/healthy expectation that such devices need not and will not duplicate the feature-set of yesterday's laptop.

Because of this solid foundation, the first successful tablet can trend up from the smartphone concept, can build upon known expectations concerning what such devices are actually meant to do, while avoiding the risk of buyer's remorse prompted by questions concerning absent optical drives or frustration over miniature tactile keyboards, etc.

The remaining question: Who hits the sweet spot?

Apple seems particularly well-positioned. There's that much-rumored-and-still-top-secret tablet which is "due" sometime in 2010. Such a device could easily piggy-back on the success of the iTunes App Store and an existing iPhone OS that consumers have already accepted as a (the?) standard in mobile, touch-based computing.

Then, of course, there's the tablet that Techcrunch was-but-is-no-longer affiliated with: Crunchpad/JooJoo. Despite some pre-release development drama and a pending lawsuit from Michael Arrington's corner over the break-up, this tablet actually has a price tag ($499) and an alleged ship date of 8-10 weeks--not to mention buzz.

Neither of these products will be available prior to the start of CES in January, but both should feature heavily in any analytical discussion of market dominance relating to the future of mobile computing, cloud or otherwise.

The fact that no one has gotten the tablet right doesn't mean it makes sense to assume that no one is going to.

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  • Public Discussion (26)
Brian Ford

It's worth noting that a search for "JooJoo" on the CES website leads to the session I'm discussing here, so it's quite possible that tablets will be featured as part of the talk, even though they're not mentioned in the abstract.

  • 2 votes
Reply#1 - Tue Dec 22, 2009 5:22 PM EST
Meso-575799

Netbooks are devices which trend down from an existing device. They're smaller, yes, but they basically feel like crippled laptops. The familiar form factor (clamshell with screen and keyboard) drives expectations from consumers regarding a certain user experience that, in most cases, simply isn't met by these products.

Netbooks are dead upon arrival.

Disagree! From personal experience, so I'm not speaking for everyone, but I'm about to start my PhD and the only thing I've asked for is a netbook.

My reasoning is like this: I need a simple machine that can do 3 things, take basic notes, run Excel for data, and be able to surf the internet for reference searches.

I want it to run for 6-9 hours on a single charge (only the Asus 1005 or something or another can do this apparently) so I can use the machine everywhere in the lab and in the animal facility. I want it to be light and fit in my handbag so I can have my data (lots of spreadsheets!) at hand all the time.

Something not too big, like a 13"-15" laptop, and not too small like a Palm or even the 8" Sony netbook.

IMHO, maybe they shouldn't be charging $300+ for the machine when you can get a full-on laptop for $500 but that might be my cheapo side talking. Even better would be the Asus T91 (I think) that can be used as a touchscreen tablet as well but it doesn't have the battery life....

    #1.1 - Tue Dec 22, 2009 6:40 PM EST
    Brian Ford

    Disagree! From personal experience, so I'm not speaking for everyone, but I'm about to start my PhD and the only thing I've asked for is a netbook.

    Well, to be fair, I'm certainly not saying that there's never going to be someone who "really" wants a netbook, but I really do think that they're a placeholder device that won't ever catch on big.

    And, also, upon looking, I'm noting that there's a fair amount of subjectivity in what "counts" as a netbook, but for my purposes, I'm talking screens smaller than ~ 10" or smaller akin to this.

    Though, again, I don't think what you've described negates my point: It seems to me that what you "want" out of a netbook for is the sort of thing a tablet is perfectly suited for.

    • 2 votes
    #1.2 - Tue Dec 22, 2009 6:47 PM EST
    checkerbattery

    This article sounds like something right out of the Apple marketing dept ;) Netbooks bad (because we don't have one), tablets good (because we'll have one soon), etc.

    Netbooks are dead upon arrival

    Not really: 2009 sales of Netbooks rise, but notebooks fall

    It really comes down to this: A smartphone is nice because I can easily fit it in my purse. If it's bigger than that then I want a real computer that can run real apps, not another proprietary device that exists in it's own little siloed world. With dual core Atoms in the pipe and cheaper/larger SSDs, netbooks will do nothing but continue to grow and dominate.

    I understand that some companies need a hook to differentiate their products and protect their margins but a tablet isn't going to do it IMO. By this time next year I'll be able to buy a $300 netbook with the power of todays $1000 laptop and have all day battery life to boot. There's no real need to limit myself with the tablet interface.

      #1.3 - Wed Dec 23, 2009 5:18 PM EST
      CL1

      The point being made is let's have a smartphone that is also a "real computer" and not too much bigger than a smartphone. On another note, I think it's too bad the "Crunchpad" is probably going to fail; I would have considered one.

      • 1 vote
      #1.4 - Wed Dec 23, 2009 5:49 PM EST
      Brian Ford

      Not really: 2009 sales of Netbooks rise, but notebooks fall

      Is it really any surprise that something that wasn't really on the market in any significant way a year ago so a huge rise in sales now that it *is* on the market, and that it's performing "well" in a down economy when they tend to sell for a lot less than the thing they're being compared to?

      This article sounds like something right out of the Apple marketing dept ;) Netbooks bad (because we don't have one), tablets good (because we'll have one soon), etc.

      Perhaps. But: Time will tell. Apple doesn't make a tablet right now, and the only thing I'm doing is making an observation: Tablets have never done well, because no one has ever known what to expect from one, and no one who has ever made one has known what to do with one. Currently, smartphones are all the rage, and touch-screen smart phones in particular. If tablets are to evolve, they'll come from that direction.

      Marketing department or not - you'd have to be kinda of silly to count Apple out in this sector, given their app store and their success with the iPhone. A lot of people read realistic evaluations and count them out as soon as they seem to be "pro" Apple, or write them off as biased, despite the fact that there's a valid argument behind the speculation. Which is to say: I'd prefer to debate my thoughts, rather than an alleged pro-Apple or anti-EverythingElse stance.

      With dual core Atoms in the pipe and cheaper/larger SSDs, netbooks will do nothing but continue to grow and dominate.

      Dominate what? The market for a group of people who want an 8" laptop with a tiny cramped keyboard that can't run graphics apps or actual games or much of anything else due to screen real-estate? I didn't know such a market existed, but my guess is that they'd probably rather stick with a normal-sized laptop and move to a more specialized device for on-the-go net-surfing, simple photo and video uploading and basic text-editing/emailing/e-booking -- or that the future will show that this is the case.

      This comment sort of summarizes my point:

      Initially people weren't sure what to do with them. Retailers were saying, "here's this new netbook PC", and the average person picked one up and said, "oh wow, that's small, maybe I can run photo shop". So, as an industry, we ended up with a lot of returns, because the functionality of what netbooks could do was not well communicated. SOURCE

      He goes on to envision a future in which netbooks have 13-14" screens, which is sort of bizarre to me, but talks about a more dedicated device like what I've described (except I see it as a tablet).

      So, what I see happening is this: People (business people) make fun of Apple for not producing a netbook and instead moving to a tablet which "no one has ever gotten right". Apple releases tablet, people buy tablet, companies which made fun of Apple start mimicking their design with tablets of their own.

      Sound familiar? It should - it's exactly the sort of dismissal that we saw prior to the launch of the iPhone, for the same reasons. Suddenly, you've got every other smart phone maker scrambling to release their me-too iPhone killer.

      • 2 votes
      #1.5 - Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:02 PM EST
      Brian Ford

      Just as an addendum:

      2010: The Year of the Tablet

      • 2 votes
      #1.6 - Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:37 PM EST
      Reply
      Sgt C USMC

      The biggest problem with tablets I've seen over the years (aside from the limited resolution and accuracy issues) has been battery life. They last 1/3 as long as their laptop equivilants because of the extra power required to utilize the digitizer matrix underneath the screen.

      Even the venerable Iphone lasts just a few hours of constant use. Add into that the drain a wifi card has, and give that sucker a 11 inch touch screen, and you could literally watch the battery drain like sands from a hourglass.

      The other problem is that tablets are niche items, just like you said. They lack the multipurpose functionality for businesses to justify purchasing them when a laptop will do almost as well, but it will also do a variety of other things that a tablet can't.

      Now IF we're going to go crazy and yank all different sorts of patented ideas from other companies to make a super tablet (IE my tablet wishlist)

      - Intel Atom Processor

      - Unbuntu Operating System

      - 11.5 inch capacitive touch screen with auto rotation (and manual override) w/ digitizer pen

      - slot load mini DVD reader (ala PSP)

      - 64 gb solid state hard drive

      - 3 usb ports

      - min 2 gb RAM

      - picture frame style stand with charging port on the bottom (then I would sell the charger docks to starbucks at a discount, so they're built into all of the tables. No need to bring your chargers!)

      - LED emitted keyboard matrix with digitizer recognition (ala Palm)

      - Wireless N networking

      -minimum 6 hours of battery life using a wide and thin LION design (essentially the bottom 2/3 of the device would be the battery)

      - 3.5 mm earphone jack (YOU HEAR ME HTC???? )

      I'd pay for that. Probably relegate my laptop to use at home too.

      • 3 votes
      Reply#2 - Tue Dec 22, 2009 7:00 PM EST
      Brian Ford

      Even the venerable Iphone lasts just a few hours of constant use.

      But, that's not really "1/3" of a typical laptop battery, though.

      • 2 votes
      #2.1 - Tue Dec 22, 2009 9:25 PM EST
      Sgt C USMC

      I understand that Brian, but you missed my point I think.

      Take a similarly equipped laptop and set it side by side with a tablet and use them each for the duration of their battery life.

      The battery life will be considerably shorter on the tablet, and the only difference would be the 'touchscreen.'

      But perhaps the capacitive touchscreen can change the game.

      Shame that it looks like the crunchpad will get completely decimated in a lawsuit, it almost seems viable.

      • 1 vote
      #2.2 - Wed Dec 23, 2009 12:12 AM EST
      Brian Ford

      Take a similarly equipped laptop and set it side by side with a tablet and use them each for the duration of their battery life.

      The battery life will be considerably shorter on the tablet, and the only difference would be the 'touchscreen.'

      I suppose that's possible, but I think they're better than they were, and ultimately, I think there are other gains. But, again, I think the problem isn't that all those things are impossible, I think the problem is that no one has solved those problems.

      • 2 votes
      #2.3 - Wed Dec 23, 2009 10:06 AM EST
      Reply
      CL1

      I would like to see a 9-inch screen with atleast a 4 hour battery capacity in a tablet.

      • 2 votes
      Reply#3 - Tue Dec 22, 2009 7:28 PM EST
      lauhal

      Clipped! Love that there's a Ford ad! lol

      • 4 votes
      Reply#4 - Tue Dec 22, 2009 8:01 PM EST
      Calvin Tang

      Ford (Motor Co.) is actually sponsoring the Technology section during the month of January and thus are a big part in enabling us to have Brian cover CES. They didn't know in advance that we had an RAV winner and natural go-to guy for CES coverage named Ford, but I'm sure that they'll get a kick out of it.

      I learned from our Ad Sales folks that Ford Motor Co. are HUGE fans of Newsvine. That is very good news for all of us, including all of your January earnings results!

      • 1 vote
      #4.1 - Wed Dec 23, 2009 2:42 PM EST
      CL1

      Thanks for sharing that info, Calvin. Very interesting!

      • 1 vote
      #4.2 - Wed Dec 23, 2009 2:50 PM EST
      lauhal

      Cool. Maybe Brian should make a disclaimer... ;)

      • 1 vote
      #4.3 - Wed Dec 23, 2009 3:37 PM EST
      spiffie

      I learned from our Ad Sales folks that Ford Motor Co. are HUGE fans of Newsvine.

      Ford seems to be making a big push into new media, also evidenced by their recent sponsorship of a number of technology-related podcasts (and podcasts in general). I think they want to become the "techie" car company, to which I say: good on them.

      • 2 votes
      #4.4 - Sun Dec 27, 2009 5:29 PM EST
      Reply
      EPH289

      Although the topic you are addressing may be an area of focus at CES, there will be I believe much bigger ones. You might want to include new devices in your list of devices competing for supremecy in the area of your focus. For instance, the introduction of electronic readers and their change to internet communication devices being led by the likes of Google, Sony, Amazon etc.

      GREEN: How electronics can be part of being better stewards of our environment. New regulation in California for Flat Panel manufacturers is a major topic in the industry today. Complaints exist that this may actually result in a reduction of creativity although I doubt it. You will find a green pavilion and seminars as well.

      3D Television: Television is still the primary driver of the CE industry. 3D is viewed as the next major development in television although I suspect real implementation will take much longer than some folks think. HD television has been in the discussion in the industry for over 30 years and has only recently come to major fruition. An interesting part of the discussion on 3D is how to avoid the medical related issues.

      Mobil Television: How it will be delivered and to what kind of devices. The standard has just recently been approved and CE manufacturers, broadcasters etc. are beginning to increase focus in this area. Delivery of content continues to be an interesting area of where the future will go. Your topic is actually in my mind a subset of this bigger issue (content). One recent development in the content issue is Comcast's purchase of NBC and the potential ramifications this has. Broadcasters are still trying to figure out what is the best use of their spectrum (monitizing it). Mobil TV is just part of that topic along with utilizing digital subchannels. Recent FCC attacks on broadcast spectrum also provides interesting and potentially future changing ramification.

      One area of technology that has been around a long time but may finally be becoming more usable is in voice control of devices. This is a small issue but interesting. We've started to see it in showing up in products like GPS etc. It may work its way into really functional control of all devices which would greatly simplfy electronics for everyone. We are back to where I started with universal remote controls where I would simply say to my younger brother; change the channel and he did. I've seen companies who are working on thought control for devices. Not very advanced at this point but really interesting.

      If you have never been to CES, you will find it fascinating. Unfortunately, it is losing and has lost some of its luster. Major technology players are downplaying CES; companies like Philips and Sony for instance are dramatically limiting or eliminating their presence.

      I look forward to reading your posts and insights.

      • 1 vote
      Reply#5 - Wed Dec 23, 2009 9:12 AM EST
      Brian Ford

      For instance, the introduction of electronic readers and their change to internet communication devices being led by the likes of Google, Sony, Amazon etc.

      Too niche. Those things aren't designed for "mobile computing" they're designed for mobile reading. I don't deny that there's a rich future for that, I just think it's another subject.

      As for your other suggestions: Yeah. There's still a lot of CES to go. ;)

      • 1 vote
      #5.1 - Wed Dec 23, 2009 10:08 AM EST
      Calvin Tang

      I checked my GMail from my Kindle once ;)

        #5.2 - Wed Dec 23, 2009 2:43 PM EST
        Brian Ford

        3D is viewed as the next major development in television although I suspect real implementation will take much longer than some folks think.

        I dunno. I'd be shocked if we saw this standard any sooner than 10 years out, and -- frankly -- I'll be shocked if we ever see it as standard, period.

        • 1 vote
        #5.3 - Wed Dec 23, 2009 3:41 PM EST
        Reply
        melger

        @ Brian -

        Your response of;

        Is it really any surprise that something that wasn't really on the market in any significant way a year ago so a huge rise in sales now that it *is* on the market, and that it's performing "well" in a down economy when they tend to sell for a lot less than the thing they're being compared to?

        That really is no argument at all. When there is a demand for a product, that point of up sales happens - netbooks not withstanding. Sure, it may be a "betwixt" product - in between a smart phone and laptop - but the netbook has found its way into the business and consumer world simply because of its convenient side.

        While most computer makers are coming to terms with a lighter weight notebook, their price points are still not cost effective when there is always new and improved mentality to justify raising the cost of the new model Mac or Windows laptop. While laptops are getting cheaper as new models come out to replace the old, that still does not address the matter of ligher, easier to carry, and easy to use netbooks.

        Your "Is it really any surprise" comment for justification of the sales of a product simply because it is new does not hold true. The iPhone and new iPod are classic examples of this. It is not because they are new (not really the case now) that makes them have appeal to consumers. It is because they have usability and functionality in every day life. In other words, the demand for the product is there in any market to warrant the further manufacturing and sales to meet the consumer demand.

        Until all makers of laptops can concoct a MacAir, the netbook will find its way on the commuter's train/plane ride or insertion into an easily managable sized sac or carry on bag.

        For once, perhaps the computer makers are getting it right - asking the consumer what the consumer wants.

          Reply#6 - Mon Jan 4, 2010 6:03 PM EST
          Brian Ford

          That really is no argument at all.

          I give them one to two more years of popularity or consumer interest. I predict (and time will tell) that their rising popularity is due to consumers not really knowing what they're getting into with a netbook.

          Your "Is it really any surprise" comment for justification of the sales of a product simply because it is new does not hold true.

          That's not what I said. I said that comparing a *percentage* increase in the market is a bad comparison, given that it wouldn't take much to increase the percentage for Netbooks, and I further said that the low cost of Netbooks against the (generally) higher cost of more powerful laptops is particularly attractive during this down economy.

          I think, in other words, that a perfect storm of opportunity for a short-term increase in interest in such a device is what we're seeing - but I bet it won't last.

          And, survey says:

          The disappointment with netbooks -- NPD analyst Stephen Baker preferred that term rather than "dissatisfaction" -- stemmed from expectations that a netbook was the same, more or less, as a laptop. Six out of every 10 netbook buyers, said Baker, thought that the two were equivalent, and figured that their new netbook would have the same functionality as a laptop.

          Just as I said.

          • 1 vote
          #6.1 - Mon Jan 4, 2010 7:38 PM EST
          Reply
          LME -

          I'm learning a lot about consumer electronics here ... thanks everyone for all the different opinions and insight. I hate to sound stupid, but technology travels faster than I can keep up. May I ask what the difference is, exactly, between the laptop and the netbook? I considered buying a netbook because of the smaller 10" size (for portability reasons). I don't do as much as a lot of people do ... I use a wordprocessor (for writing papers), and I like to just surf the web reading the news, facebook (but not religiously!), reading email, etc. No gaming, not much music or video use.

          I do not want a phone that does all of this, because phone screens are too small for me ... certainly there is a HUGE population of people like me - in their 40's - and a HUGE number of ALL the baby boomers, whose eyesight is not that great anymore, and who have a ton of trouble reading those very small phone screens. I wear contacts and only need reading glasses to read small print - a category that the "viewing of cell phones" fall, for me. I do a fair amount of texting with friends, in between all the other activities of daily living that do not require my use of reading glasses, and it is nothing but a HUGE annoyance to me to have to constantly be putting on and taking off reading glasses!! That is why I was considering a netbook for use when I am not in front of a 19" or 20" monitor. I have a new 17" laptop, which I ordered online so I did not actually see it in-person when I bought it, and it turns out that it is not very practical for carrying around. It's a bit too large for easy portability. I figured a netbook, with it's approx. 10" screen, would be the perfect "in-between" device for me.

          Do you agree with me - that there is a huge population (and growing) of people who find these small cell phone screens difficult to see, making it difficult for them to utilize all this great stuff that cell phones are capable of (and thus, may be discouraging them from buying them) ? And that there would be a really good market for devices that are "in-between" in size? Am I wrong? Are there not a lot of other people who have this complaint? Maybe I am in the minority here, and just being lazy (for not wanting to constantly put on and take off reading glasses) ... maybe I'm just trying to resist the inevitable ... and most "aging" people are just "sucking it up," not complaining about it, and doing whatever they have to do to in order to keep using the technology that cell phones are increasingly offering?? If it's just me ... sorry for all my rantings here!!!

          Thanks for listening, and for everyone's input and insight here ... I am enjoying the reading (on my huge 17" laptop screen!!!)

            Reply#7 - Wed Jan 6, 2010 7:58 PM EST
            Brian Ford

            Laptops and Netbooks are, for all intents and purposes, comparable.

            The obvious difference is size, and price, but Netbooks also tend to be less "souped up" and may come with fewer ports, less powerful processors, etc.

            I would think they'd do most of the things you want pretty well, but they're simply (imo) not future-proofed, should you later decide you want more from your portable computer.

            • 1 vote
            #7.1 - Wed Jan 6, 2010 10:49 PM EST
            Reply
            hydrosunfarm

            Mr Ford I was interested if you heard at the show why the University of Hartford student pulled his booth at CES. FENOM llc I was tracking his ex-poser with his smart phones and heard he was talking to some big players Dell, Microsoft etc. I was impressed with the projection aspect not like that clunky LG clip on thing. A kid in college it was probibly cash flow!

              Reply#8 - Fri Jan 8, 2010 2:46 PM EST
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