Attendees at CES will have a choice of conference sessions covering almost every conceivable topic in consumer electronics, but perhaps nothing will be so current or come with such immediate ramifications on the future of an industry as the hotly debated topic of mobile computing. In fact, one of the first questions I was asked regarding CES went straight to that point:
As consumer products move to cloud computing, they will become smaller, simpler and cheaper. I would like to know:
- Which products are ahead to curve? netbooks or cell phones?
Beyond being "the" question a lot of companies and consumers are pondering, CES has dedicated an hour-long session to exploring the topic:
Smartphones, Netbooks, Laptops/Notebooks: Competitors or Complements?
All three of these mobile computing devices are vying for market dominance. Harris Interactive research executives will share findings from an in-depth study of Smartphone, netbook and laptop/notebook users to reveal how each device is used and positioned in the marketplace. SOURCE
Milton Ellis promises to examine "Just the Facts: Research, Reports and Revelations" in an effort to puzzle out what the future may hold for computing on the go.
Odd, then, that there is no mention of tablet computing in the abstract.
Laptops and notebooks are yesterday's mobile computing news. They remain portable, yes. Still, the power of current-gen laptops and notebooks is such that $500-$700 will buy what most consumers used to expect from an impressive desktop PC.
I don't see an immediate future in which these devices are obsolete, I just think they can be ruled out as part of the debate.
So, that leaves us with netbooks and smartphones, two devices which tend to straddle a niche that seems to have eluded most every company which has tried to find the sweet spot: Tablet-based computing.
In other words, no one has cornered (or even gotten to first base with) the market for a device which provides not the full computing experience, but the essential computing experience that one would expect while having coffee at Starbucks or on a long flight or while attending a lecture. (Not to mention while roaming around an event on the scale of CES.)
Neither smartphones nor netbooks fill this void. With netbooks in particular, they're the direction some companies have gone based on a lack of success, to date, with tablets: Mobile computing cop-outs. With that said--if you're looking to the future--the first "must-have" device is going to be more smartphone than netbook.
Why?
Netbooks are devices which trend down from an existing device. They're smaller, yes, but they basically feel like crippled laptops. The familiar form factor (clamshell with screen and keyboard) drives expectations from consumers regarding a certain user experience that, in most cases, simply isn't met by these products.
Netbooks are dead upon arrival.
Smartphones--starting with Apple's iPhone and extending to the Palm Pre and Droid--are more closely aligned with the future of mobile computing. Consumers have an existing/healthy expectation that such devices need not and will not duplicate the feature-set of yesterday's laptop.
Because of this solid foundation, the first successful tablet can trend up from the smartphone concept, can build upon known expectations concerning what such devices are actually meant to do, while avoiding the risk of buyer's remorse prompted by questions concerning absent optical drives or frustration over miniature tactile keyboards, etc.
The remaining question: Who hits the sweet spot?
Apple seems particularly well-positioned. There's that much-rumored-and-still-top-secret tablet which is "due" sometime in 2010. Such a device could easily piggy-back on the success of the iTunes App Store and an existing iPhone OS that consumers have already accepted as a (the?) standard in mobile, touch-based computing.
Then, of course, there's the tablet that Techcrunch was-but-is-no-longer affiliated with: Crunchpad/JooJoo. Despite some pre-release development drama and a pending lawsuit from Michael Arrington's corner over the break-up, this tablet actually has a price tag ($499) and an alleged ship date of 8-10 weeks--not to mention buzz.
Neither of these products will be available prior to the start of CES in January, but both should feature heavily in any analytical discussion of market dominance relating to the future of mobile computing, cloud or otherwise.
The fact that no one has gotten the tablet right doesn't mean it makes sense to assume that no one is going to.




