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iPhone 3G: The "Total Cost of Ownership" Argument

Tue Jun 17, 2008 3:58 PM EDT
technology, apple, iphone, at, 3g, apple-inc, smart-phone, iphone-3g
By Brian Ford
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So, Apple announces the iPhone 3G (does that make the 1st Generation iPhone the 1G iPhone or the iPhone 2.5G and is the iPhone 3G the 2G iPhone 3G?) and alongside the new look, the new software and other improvements, a svelte-looking Steve Jobs confirmed early reports that the price would drop to an unbelievable $199 for the 8GB model and $299 for the 16GB model.

Predictably, the price drop is due to a new subsidy deal with AT&T, as noted in this recent CNET article:

But the new deal comes at a price. AT&T executives said on a conference call with analysts and investors on Monday that the arrangement will put pressure on the company's profit margins and dilute earnings for the next year and a half. That said, the company believes that the new price point and improved Web surfing experience of the iPhone on AT&T's 3G wireless network will drive sales of the iPhone and get more customers using its data services. SOURCE

An update toward the end of the same article makes note of a concern that has been dominating the technology blog circuit for the past week or so, starting from about t-minus one second after Jobs announced the price drop: Due to the upgraded 3G network, AT&T will no longer offer iPhone specific service plans, and (gasp!) data service rates will go up by a minimum of $10 a month. As a result, the total cost of ownership of an iPhone 3G will ultimately go up over the course of a two-year contract when compared to a 1G iPhone utilizing the slower EDGE network. To add insult to injury, 200 text messages will set you back another $5 a month.

To be precise (and plenty of people are being very precise) the iPhone 3G will set users back $160 over the course of a two-year contract, when compared to a standard 1G iPhone contract, once the subsidy and extra costs are taken into account.

$160 dollars isn't exactly chump change but looking at total cost of ownership simply isn't a realistic way of gauging any given consumer's willingness to purchase a product. Ultimately, pointing out a long-term cost is little more than nit-picking in order to find some way to look a gift-horse in the mouth, and spending habits don't support that sort of thinking.

For example: Let's say my Netflix subscription is $10/month. (It's a little more than that, but the math is easier.) For 24 months, I pay $240 to get 2 movies at a time, as many times as I want in a given month. That's a good deal for me, because I can always afford to spend $10 a month. But wait! Let's assume that Netflix will allow me to pay an upfront fee of $200 and upgrades my account to 3 movies at a time, for a two-year contract. Great deal, right? I've just saved $40 and earned an extra movie, meaning I could, at a minimum, watch an extra twelve movies a year.

Except, that isn't a good deal for me at all, because I simply don't have $200 to plunk down on a luxury.

Another example: Ask any average joe on the prowl for a new iMac whether they can afford to get a mid-range setup for $1500 via a cash payment, and most people won't have it in their budget. Those same people can "afford" to take out a line of credit, pay off the iMac in $30-$50 increments, even at an ridiculously high APR of ~ 19%. In two years, that unaffordable $1500 iMac is going to have set back our average joe more than $2000.

That same average joe may have balked at spending $499 for an 1G iPhone, but will gladly consider spending $199 -- even with an extra $10 or $15 a month -- because the immediate savings seem so drastic while the monthly increase simply doesn't seem that bad and, the fact of the matter is, $160 spread out over two years only amounts to $6.66 more per month. (Nice.)

Essentially, anyone who wastes their time setting up a total cost of ownership chart either 1) doesn't understand the way we spend our money in America or 2) is nitpicking the iPhone because it's a convenient way to earn some page views. Either way, even with the two-year increase, Apple is about to sell a butt-load of iPhones.

All of this, of course, ignores the fact that AT&T's service plan for 3G Data is in-line with just about every other provider, when compared to their high-speed offerings. There's also that AT&T is charging their standard rate for a 3G data package, and would have charged the extra $10 with or without the subsidy.

That $160? It could have been $460.

This article was cross-posted from my blog.

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  • Public Discussion (38)
Brian Ford

With all that said, my hesitation has nothing to do with the added costs, I'm more interested in finding out if I'll be happy enough with my 1G iPhone with the 2.0 software, before deciding on upgrading.

If I didn't have a 1G iPhone, I'd be in line on release day.

  • 12 votes
Reply#1 - Tue Jun 17, 2008 4:01 PM EDT
prompt

If I didn't have a 1G iPhone, I'd be in line on release day.

That is how I feel, which is why I'll be there on release day. I had been debating getting a new Blackberry, as mine is slowly in the process of breaking, but with the price drop on the iPhone it seems like an easy decision to make.

  • 5 votes
#1.1 - Tue Jun 17, 2008 7:27 PM EDT
AdipicAcid

I'm still standing on one foot and then the other. I never used SMS before getting my iPhone, but the fact that I get 200 a month in my current plan and AT&T wants to nickel and dime me for them on the 3G has me wondering if waiting for version 3 and perhaps a regulatory change that will forbid exclusive contracts might be a wiser idea.

  • 5 votes
#1.2 - Tue Jun 17, 2008 10:11 PM EDT
ShaunV

I am still on the fence, too.

  • 4 votes
#1.3 - Wed Jun 18, 2008 8:57 AM EDT
Dr Juice

I never used SMS before getting my iPhone, but the fact that I get 200 a month in my current plan and AT&T wants to nickel and dime me for them on the 3G has me wondering if waiting for version 3 and perhaps a regulatory change that will forbid exclusive contracts might be a wiser idea.

They're "nickel and diming" you no more than any other non-iPhone AT&T customer. With gen 1 we got a bit of a break on plans, but we paid full freight for the device (which is one of the reasons people balked at it). It seems that Apple's play with the iPhone 1.0 was to make a premium device with a decidedly different experience (better rate plans, at-home activation) but people were shy from the "premium device" aspect. Most cell phone owners used to a free or severely-discounted phone said "I'd love to get one, but $400 for a phone?"

Now Apple is making a big push for marketshare, and $199-with-standard-rate-plans is much more palatable than $499-with-premium-plans. If they're still unlimited data plans I'll be fine, I look at it is $10 more for 3G speeds and GPS. For any of you Verizon or Sprint subscribers, is there a monthly charge for GPS service on your GPS-equipped handsets?

  • 3 votes
#1.4 - Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:07 PM EDT
AdipicAcid

I understand, but I'm not sure I see the value in the new plans for me. As I still have more than a year to go with the old prices locked in, perhaps it is in my interest to wait for a better deal, that's all I am saying.

  • 2 votes
#1.5 - Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:35 PM EDT
Brian Ford

It's true -- for those who HAVE an 1st Gen. iPhone, the question is:

Is the 3G and GPS enough of an incentive to pay a bit extra each month considering you're going to get the software update on your existing iPhone.

For me, I'm just not sure. Like I said, I'm going to let a couple weeks pass after the release of the iPhone 3G, and see how I feel then.

  • 3 votes
#1.6 - Wed Jun 18, 2008 4:17 PM EDT
Reply
lauhal

About time you wrote something. ;) Well, I had an iPhone in my hand at the Apple store the other day and I wondered if it was worth it. I'm still locked into my current plan, so I have no immediate plans to switch. I know a couple people who have iPhones and love them, but I'm still not convinced. I'm clipping this so I can re-read it when my plan expires. :)

  • 11 votes
Reply#2 - Tue Jun 17, 2008 4:18 PM EDT
finalcut

If the iPhone 3g worked with my Blackberry enterprise server I'd be all over the new one. The screen along would make the change worth it to me. But, alas, as far as I know this iPhone will only work with an exchange server (we, unfortunately, use Notes here at my office).

  • 7 votes
Reply#3 - Tue Jun 17, 2008 5:24 PM EDT
Brian Ford

I can understand why some people would be interested in the enterprise stuff, but mine is definitely a consumer device, and for that purpose, it's been well worth buying it upfront at the initial price-point (even without the rebate) and it's probably one of my favorite purchases, ever. There are some issues (many of which will either be addressed by software 2.0, GPS or 3G speed) but I've never been "unhappy" with my 1G iPhone.

  • 9 votes
#3.1 - Tue Jun 17, 2008 5:39 PM EDT
finalcut

My younger brother has a iPhone v1 and he loves it. It was my wifes but she didn't like typing on the screen so she sold it to him about a week after she bought it. It is a very slick device and I didn't mind the typing on the screen.

However, I can't fathom carrying two cell phones (one work one pleasure) and my BB pearl does "OK" but the iPod features and the webbrowser of the iPhone make me want it really badly (since now I carry an iPod at times and my phone).

I think, eventually, there will be an option (or my company will move to Exchange) and then... oh then I will have an iPhone and be happy with it. Device consolidation is my kind of thing while toting them around in my pockets.

  • 7 votes
#3.2 - Tue Jun 17, 2008 6:18 PM EDT
MasterNav

finalcut - something your IT/messaging folks probably don't want you to know about: they can choose to activate the correct IMAP services on the Domino servers supporting your Notes email system to allow your iPhone to work seamlessly on Notes. However push is not available until sometime later this Summer or Fall. IBM is working on a full DWA/Lotus Traveller client for the iPhone that will give the push to email, calendar and events.

I admire RIM for forcing so many enterprise messaging departments (via executive demand obviously) to buy their proprietary servers to get that functionality. Exchange is poised to offer significant challenges to the Notes/Domino services, unless IBM can build a better mousetrap for less, but given an enterprise solution that can leverage existing Exchange infrastructure, and provide a secure and reliable alternative to the RIM/BB services, I can see the iPhone 2.0/3G as being tempting.

Good analysis Brian.

  • 6 votes
#3.3 - Tue Jun 17, 2008 8:45 PM EDT
finalcut

Oh I doubt my "IT folks" are hiding anything from me :O) we are a small company (about 30-40 people) who are all IT folks. Our notes admin works with me on a daily basis - I've just never asked him about IMAP access to notes.

We have had the investment in Notes for a long time because for a while the company (before I joined) did a lot of custom Notes development. We have contemplated switching to Exchange. We almost went to Google for Domains (but they don't respond to any questions asked them so it doesn't give the owner of the company much confidence something will be fixed if we report a problem).

I know one of our sales guys uses an iPhone - I'll ask him if he is using IMAP or POP access to his notes account.

Notes admin, in general, at this point, is a pretty low priority item for our company. Lie I said we are a small outfit and we who can be billable to try stay billable as much as possible and do as little overhead as possible. For all I know he (our designated Notes admin) may not even know about the IMAP enabling feature himself (though I would be he does). Thanks for the heads up.

  • 5 votes
#3.4 - Tue Jun 17, 2008 9:31 PM EDT
Reply
Leah M

spending habits don't support that sort of thinking

That's exactly why they can get away with it. This is the first time I've seen anyone point out in such black and white terms that over time the consumer is spending a lot more money with this new plan. I'm kind of wondering why/when other carriers will start competing for iPhoneage (as Fake Steve and Cnet pointed out). Do you have any thoughts on the end of the iPhone being offered exclusively with AT&T?

  • 4 votes
Reply#4 - Tue Jun 17, 2008 11:25 PM EDT
Brian Ford

I doubt the end of the exclusive arrangement will be anytime soon, and frankly, it doesn't bother me. I suspect we'd not have an iPhone if Apple would have had to acquiesce to the demands of other providers. (It's no secret that many providers balked at some of what Apple wanted, AT&T is the only company that bit.) The exclusive doesn't seem to be hurting Apple too terribly much, and I think if people want it, they'll figure out how to get it. (Like I did.)

EDIT: Reading over the CNET article, maybe it is possible, and I certainly don't think it would be awful if it were available elsewhere, but I'm betting it's not as easy as he makes it out to be to bring other carriers in.

If they don't want it, I don't think Apple has an obligation to give it to them the way they DO want it, at the expense of their vision of what a phone should be, right?

This is the first time I've seen anyone point out in such black and white terms that over time the consumer is spending a lot more money with this new plan.

Well, the same information is everywhere. Gizmodo posted the comparison which is where I got the $160 figure. Here.

Apple's phone is actually cheaper than most of the competition.

And, again, I don't think it IS a lot more, anyway. Especially for a phone that IS an actual upgrade. Is 160 more over two years too much to ask for the one feature everyone wanted (3G) and a feature that we weren't sure we'd get (GPS)? I don't think it is. And, ultimately, I think the way it's spread out makes that $160 a moot point.

  • 4 votes
#4.1 - Tue Jun 17, 2008 11:51 PM EDT
Reply
JustinPM

Hey, quick question. Why is it that the iPhone 8GB is less than the iPod Touch 8 GB? Because of the contract?

  • 4 votes
Reply#5 - Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:01 AM EDT
Brian Ford

Well, I presume the contract has a lot to do with it. With an iPod Touch, you pay a one time fee and then you never owe another penny, unless you purchase some of the coming software.

  • 4 votes
#5.1 - Wed Jun 18, 2008 9:09 AM EDT
MasterNav

ATT is in fact subsidizing the 3G iPhone which brings the price down below the iPod Touch.

  • 4 votes
#5.2 - Wed Jun 18, 2008 10:23 AM EDT
JustinPM

I was figuring so, just didn't see it anywhere 'cause I hadn't dug deep.

  • 1 vote
#5.3 - Wed Jun 18, 2008 4:02 PM EDT
Reply
leveldown

Another example: Ask any average joe on the prowl for a new iMac whether they can afford to get a mid-range setup for $1500 via a cash payment, and most people won't have it in their budget. Those same people can "afford" to take out a line of credit, pay off the iMac in $30-$50 increments, even at an ass-rapingly ridiculous APR of ~ 19%. In two years, that unaffordable $1500 iMac is going to have set back our average joe more than $2000.

And that is why Americans are in so much financial trouble at the moment. Spending what they don't have. I would have preferred Apple to keep the high initial price, but either way I'm still probably going to upgrade.

  • 3 votes
Reply#6 - Wed Jun 18, 2008 10:27 AM EDT
Brian Ford

You think so? I'd say the financial trouble of Americans is probably rooted in a lot of things, and would have a hard time attributing it to just that one thing. I mean, I buy on credit fairly often, because I don't have the upfront cash to get some of the things I'd like to have.

I think my point stands even for people who aren't in financial trouble: We simply like to feel we're paying less NOW, even if we're paying MORE later. In essense, I'm okay with paying a premium for convenience, and the whole "total cost of ownership" argument is a bit like telling me that the hot dog I'm eating is disgusting.

I KNOW it's disgusting, I've seen how they're made. I still think they taste awesome on a bun with ketchup and mustard, though.

  • 2 votes
#6.1 - Wed Jun 18, 2008 11:01 AM EDT
leveldown

Yes I do think that this is indicative of the financial trouble America finds itself in. The simple concept of paying more over the course of time simply for the pleasure of immediacy is not a healthy one. The only place it is really appropriate is when buying a house and maybe a car although I'm even dubious on the car front. In many countries it is viewed as shameful to get into debt and considered a responsibility towards your family to save money and is why many other countries find themselves in much stronger financial positions.

I KNOW it's disgusting, I've seen how they're made. I still think they taste awesome on a bun with ketchup and mustard, though.

I think this is a bad analogy. Hot Dogs are only disgusting because of Western tastes towards using the whole of the animal. I view it as a moral responsibility that if you are going to kill an animal you should use every part. And hot dogs are delicious and ok when eaten in moderation. Debt is not.

But we digress. The TCO argument is moot, it's just them offering you credit. I'll probably still upgrade to 3G.

  • 2 votes
#6.2 - Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:15 PM EDT
Brian Ford

Well, I think there are a lot of poor decisions made, particularly by young people getting their first credit card. I know I made a lot of mistakes and dumb purchases in college (I got a target card one time just so I could get some groceries) but I also think a lot of people are capable of managing their credit responsibly. Now, if you believe that there's no such thing as "good debt" I guess the debate is pretty much over.

I still say it's a bit of a moot point, as what I say in my article is true either way.

  • 1 vote
#6.3 - Wed Jun 18, 2008 4:15 PM EDT
Reply
Chum

I bought the iTouch (because I have a Nextel situation). Love it. I really wish I could get an iPhone. Maybe in a few years.

  • 2 votes
Reply#7 - Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:14 PM EDT
Dr Juice

I'm listening to the live stream of MacBreak Weekly, I think you just got a little shout out :-)

  • 3 votes
Reply#8 - Wed Jun 18, 2008 2:51 PM EDT
Brian Ford

Really? How so? Link to the stream?

  • 2 votes
#8.1 - Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:32 PM EDT
Brian Ford

Well, I found a link -- it's long. I'll take a listen later tonight, unless you happen to know about when in the stream I can focus on?

  • 2 votes
#8.2 - Wed Jun 18, 2008 3:38 PM EDT
Dr Juice

There wasn't a timer for the stream so I'm not sure when, but Leo mentions an article "from Newsvine" about the "total cost of ownership argument" after which there's a discussion about the lack of included SMS in the rate plans.

Theoretically, AT&T could still announce some iPhone-only plans. The plans for iPhone 1.0 weren't announced until a few days before release, however this seems unlikely to me.

  • 2 votes
#8.3 - Wed Jun 18, 2008 5:15 PM EDT
Brian Ford

Yeah, I think they've actually confirmed most of these plans. Thanks. I'll take a listen tonight.

  • 2 votes
#8.4 - Wed Jun 18, 2008 5:20 PM EDT
Reply
Kathy Gill

As someone who already has an AT&T phone (Blackjack, v1) with access to their 3G network ... I'm here to tell ya that it's not fast. Dunno if that's the phone or the network, but most of the time (in Seattle) web download is slow-slow-slow. Even on txt pages. :-/

Yes, Edge is slower, but I'm not sure by how much.

That said, I'm in the market for an iPhone. Birthday coming up!

  • 1 vote
Reply#9 - Thu Jun 19, 2008 5:31 AM EDT
Brian Ford

I had always heard that 3G could sometimes be kinda comparable to EDGE, but I have to wonder:

1) Does it depend on where you are and

2) How much does software have to do with it?

For me, the 3G isn't quite as compelling a reason as the GPS, but faster load times WOULD be nice when I'm away from a Wi-Fi hotspot, which is more often than I'd like, just not often enough that the 3G is a definitive reason to switch.

  • 1 vote
#9.1 - Thu Jun 19, 2008 9:12 AM EDT
leveldown

Brian, both software and the processor in the phone have a hell of a lot to do with it. Many 3G phone are crippled by their hardware and software and are actually slower than the current 2.5G iphone and rendering web pages.

Where you are is a factor also.

  • 2 votes
#9.2 - Thu Jun 19, 2008 9:26 AM EDT
Kathy Gill

Hi, Brian .... it makes sense that hardware and software and signal would all have something do to with speed. Here's a YouTube clip comparing a 1st gen Blackjack on 3G and Edge and a Samsung PocketPC on Sprint EV-DO: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sm_ffE21L-M

In this video, there is a huge difference in Edge and 3G.

I hadn't thought about trying to find a mobile speed test before now! Will test. I've often wondered if MSIE is part of my problem -- but Blackjack's java isn't standard, I guess, because I haven't been able to install Opera.

  • 2 votes
#9.3 - Fri Jun 20, 2008 11:40 AM EDT
Reply
Dr Juice

Ok, math has never been my subject, but running some numbers myself here's what I've come up with:

8GB iPhone:
$599 + $36 + ($59.99*24) = $2074.76
That's for someone buying an 8GB iPhone on June 29, 2007, the one-time activation fee, and the cost of the lowest-priced plan available over 24 months before taxes and other fees. Post price-cut:
$399 + $36 + ($59.99*24) = $1874.76

8GB iPhone 3G:
$199 + $36 + (($39.99 + $30 + $5)*24) = $2034.76
That's the now-subsidized 8GB iPhone 3G (for which Apple is supposedly fetching $325 per handset, plus $100 per new subscriber) and pricing information from AT&T's press release. The additional $5.00 per month is for the 200 SMS package that was included in the original iPhone's plans.

So, for someone who bought the iPhone between June 29 and September 5 (like me), the iPhone 3G is cheaper both in initial outlay and TCO (though $40 over 2 years is, well, nothing). For someone who bought in between September 5th and whenever Apple ran out, it is more expensive, although it's more expensive by approximately $6.67 per month:

$2034.76 - $1874.76 = $160
$160/24 = $6.666666667

  • 3 votes
Reply#10 - Thu Jun 19, 2008 10:14 PM EDT
Brian Ford

Yeah, the 6.66 is what I came to, as well, using engadget's comparison chart. I didn't consider the fact that I spent $200 more on mine than a lot of people, though I did get the $100 rebate.

Also, no one seems able to confirm that SMS messages WILL be $5 extra. That same podcast you referenced (they did mention my article, but sort of as an aside - still cool, though) said that they talked to an AT&T rep and he said there wasn't information one way or the other about SMS, yet.

  • 2 votes
#10.1 - Thu Jun 19, 2008 10:39 PM EDT
Dr Juice

That was Scott Bourne, he does a podcast called Apple Phone Show which I've never heard, although I do enjoy MacBreak Weekly and few of Leo Laporte's other podcasts (I first heard about Newsvine way back in January 2006 when he and Amber MacArthur interviewed our pal Mike Davidson).

In any event, that $5 a month comes from AT&T offering a 200-SMS-a-month package for $5, whereas that 200-SMS part was built-in to the original iPhone plans.

does that make the 1st Generation iPhone the 1G iPhone or the iPhone 2.5G and is the iPhone 3G the 2G iPhone 3G?

I propose "8GB 1G iPhone EDGE" and and "8GB 2G iPhone 3G."

Apologies if that first part seemed like an ad.

  • 2 votes
#10.2 - Thu Jun 19, 2008 11:03 PM EDT
Reply
Ian-616793

None of this matters at the Enterprise level. It really isn't a matter of enterprise support for the infrastructure and capabilities as to whether most large enterprises will adopt the 3G. What it is about is the total cost of ownership.

Because of Apple's "breakthrough" business model in which they charge huge amounts of money for the hardware and force AT&T to subsidize the price for consumers, a corporate buyer has to absorb a MUCH MUCH larger TCO. For example, at my Fortune 75 company (150,000 employees worldwide) we can implement a blackberry solution in partnership with AT&T. We actually get PAID to use those devices while receiving substantial discounts on our bulk minute usage with AT&T. This is because AT&T knows they can give us a nice deal on using millions of minutes or we'll go to another carrier (we recently dropped one that rhymes with Stint) 

However, because of the business model, Apple and AT&T will not discount the hardware OR allow us to use the bulk minutes model at the enterprise level. At that point, it doesn't matter what the phone is capable of, it will never be allowed in our offices due to cost, period. Before someone says, "buck up and spend the money" consider the thousands of users that are using free to we get paid to use phones today compared to using 200+ dollars per user and no plan discounts per user type models. It becomes millions of dollars in SG&A, Apple didn't think this through at all for REALLY large companies. Sure they've got their case studies showing fortune 500 companies, but I'd like to see full enterprise adoption numbers not just a few executives or a college with little financial accountability.

Of course if my organization allowed a "bring your own phone" solution such as lease backs etc this would not be an issue, but then again, we've also received top honors during security audits because we don't practice these types of workarounds.

    Reply#11 - Sun Oct 5, 2008 12:13 PM EDT
    Brian Ford

    Frankly, despite Apple's minimal efforts to convince people otherwise, I don't think they see themselves as an Enterprise phone, nor do I think they're trying all that hard to position themselves in that market.

    The vast majority of the announcements you see relating to the iPhone are consumer oriented, not business oriented. I think they're plenty happy to have hundreds (or thousands) of individuals buying phones and taking them into work to say "hey, I bought this, can you set me up on exchange..." (out of the over a million who are purchasing it for personal use) rather than thousands of bulk purchases in which entire corporations build their mobile strategy around Apple's iPhone.

    Now, a few major companies may do that, and it will allow Apple to say "see how great it works" but I don't see Steve Jobs sweating it, because they're making a @!$%# ton off the iPhone one way or the other, and even *without* that - the perception is that the iPhone is *the* smartphone to have, based on the number of competitors out that are labeled the "iPhone Killer" (#2 in the market) rather than the "Blackberry Killer" (#1 in the market).

      #11.1 - Sun Oct 5, 2008 1:11 PM EDT
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