Rumor Mill Roundup: Macworld Expo 2007

(Dismantling the rumor mill in the lead-up to MacWorld Expo 2007.)

Come gather 'round now children, it's that time of year: Pundits, rumor-sites, Apple-related news sites, tech blogs and haters alike will soon put forth their best guesses as to what Uncle Steve has in store for the new year.

What this is not: An example of a pundit, rumor site, tech blog, Apple-related news site or hater making predictions about new Apple products that may or may not be announced at the upcoming MacWorld Expo -- 2007 edition.

What this is: Predictions regarding the predictions of those noted above. (In doing so, a representative example from each category will be utilized.)

Here goes nothing:

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Think Secret (The Rumor Sites)

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Expect vague predictions which will seem bolder than they actually are -- all of which will be backed by mysterious "sources" which have (not so mysteriously) become less and less accurate over the last couple of years. They'll likely prognosticate something obvious and then tack on a couple of random features in an effort to "predict different" than their rivals the biz. A few days after the expo, they'll explain that they have a great track record due to having "predicted" the obvious -- despite muffing the finer details which made up the bulk of their "actual" predictions. It is also possible that they will blame a poor track record on last minute changes by a spiteful Steve Jobs.

Sample prediction: Apple plans to announce a ship date for Mac OS X -- Leopard. Think Secret sources say that it may involve a free version of dot Mac with an increase in capacity to 200GB. (Sources are unclear whether dot Mac will actually be free and the increase may be much smaller than indicated.)

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Rob Enderle/Paul Thurrot/etc. (The Pundits)

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Sources aren't clear on this, but expect both to make bold predictions about hardware releases, only to summarily dismiss any chance that said hardware will 1) sell as a result of 2) not being worth a damn. Both will also find some way to work in a pitch for Vista and/or Microsoft's Zune. Strong potential for predictions regarding the downfall of Apple by 2008. We may even be treated to: "Steve Jobs might not, but should, announce his resignation as CEO, for the good of Apple -- which I love dearly, despite all evidence to the contrary."

Sample prediction: Apple will of course release an iPhone and it is likely that hordes of Apple Zealots will fellate Steve Jobs on their way out the door. I expect to receive hate mail about my accurate assessment of the soon-to-be-announced product, which follows: The iPhone will iSuck. It will be underpowered when compared to the new version of the Zune, which will eventually offer more features.

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Slashdot (The Tech Blogs)

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My sources couldn't turn up predictions, per se. Expect the following: "It's that time of year again, which means that Apple will soon release new toys for us to turn up our nose at. A cursory glance at the rumor-mill shows that we can expect 1) more DRM 2) no OGG support 3) underpowered specs 4) great UI at the expense of your ability to take the device apart and 5) more one button devices. As such, we will forego the prediction stage and move right into the annoying tech snob phase."

Likely description of the event: "Set phasers to under-whelm."

When discussing Slashdot, sources often referenced Dwight, from NBC's The Office: "Ooooooh, man, is that a Prism DuroSport? It's like an iPod but they're better, because it's chunkier and more solid."

Sample prediction: None. (See above.) The slashdot crowd lacks the necessary imagination to play this game and will thus resort to describing whatever Apple releases as inferior to some (other) device that no one will ever buy. Half of the comment thread will involve an overused in-joke that will (once again) be modded up as funny. The other half will poke fun at Apple for not offering a right-clicking mouse. (Despite the fact that Apple does offer such a device.)

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Daring Fireball (Apple-related News Sites)

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Expect these sites to treat the Expo a bit like an office NCAA tourney bracket -- a fun event that can be discussed with peers but which won't be taken too seriously. As such, predictions will range from unabashed wish-lists to serious evaluations of likely offerings. Unlike most who prognosticate about the Expo, these predictions will involve a modicum of reality but will nonetheless make few claims of accuracy. During the big reveal: Predictions will be abandoned for a play-by-play analysis of actual announcements as they occur.

(My sources now indicate that Gruber will play it safe by not making predictions regarding the eta of my Daring Fireball t-shirt, which I pine for.)

Sample prediction: Not necessary. Actual predictions found here.

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The Haters (You know who you are.)

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Sources indicate that this crowd will react in a fashion similar to the tech blog crowd. The difference: This will come from a deep cynicism and irrational hatred towards anything involving Apple, and not so much as a result of snobbery regarding technology. Predictions about actual products aren't likely -- but predictions about the quality of (any announced) products are certain: "They will all @!$%#ing suck and all you Apple fags are stupid and would eat a @!$%# sandwich if it were served by your leader, Steve Jobbs -- and you'd pay too much for it, to. iTunes sucks!"

Sample prediction: See above.

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Bonus Prediction (As the Apple Turns.)

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The world's greatest defunct Apple-related web site will remain defunct. The departure will continue without an official announcement and as such the best track-record I've ever come across (regarding new-product predictions and Apple) will miss yet another Expo. Sources indicate that this site was run by Steve Jobs himself and that Apple's blogging policy forced its unfortunate demise.

Sample prediction: ".........."

There you have it -- predictions about the predictions you're likely to encounter between now and the end of Steve Jobs' keynote speech at the Expo. Complete accuracy is a certainty: My sources guarantee it.

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